Population estimate of 284 polar bears, based on mark-recapture work completed in 2000. There is low harvest, and the population is thought to be increasing from reduced numbers.
Status table outtake
|
Aerial survey / Mark-recapture analysis |
Additional / Alternative Analysis |
|||||||||||
| Number (year of estimate) |
±2 SE or 95% CI |
Number (year of estimate) |
±2 SE or min-max range |
Sim | TEK | Historical annual removals (5 yr mean) | Potential maximum annual removals | Status | Current trend | Estimated risk of future decline | ||
| 284 (2000) | 166-402 | 2 | 3 | Reduced | Increasing | Very low | ||||||
Table comment: 0% of PVA simulation runs resulted in subpopulation decline after 10 years. Population is managed for recovery; harvest is below sustainable rates.
The current population boundaries for the M’Clintock Channel (MC) subpopulation are based on recovery of tagged bears and movements of adult females with satellite radio-collars in adjacent areas (Taylor and Lee 1995, Taylor et al. 2001a). These boundaries appear to be a consequence of large islands to the east and west, the mainland to the south, and the heavy multi-year ice in Viscount Melville Sound to the north. An estimate of 900 bears was derived from a 6-year study in the mid 1970s within the boundaries proposed for the MC subpopulation, as part of a study conducted over a larger area of the central Arctic (Furnell and Schweinsburg 1984). Following the completion of a mark-recapture inventory in spring 2000, the subpopulation was estimated to number 284 ± 59.3 (Taylor et al. 2006a). Natural survival and recruitment rates were estimated at values lower than previous standardized estimates (Taylor et al. 1987).