In 1998, the population size was estimated to be 2,074. A 2004 estimate of less than 1,600 bears was simulated from birth and death rates estimated in 1998 and harvest rates from Greenland and Canada.
Status table outtake
|
Aerial survey / Mark-recapture analysis |
Additional / Alternative Analysis |
|||||||||||
| Number (year of estimate) |
±2 SE or 95% CI |
Number (year of estimate) |
±2 SE or min-max range |
Sim | TEK | Historical annual removals (5 yr mean) | Potential maximum annual removals | Status | Current trend | Estimated risk of future decline | ||
| 2074 (1997) | 1544-2604 | 1546 (2004) | 690-2402 | X | 212 | 176 | Data deficient | Declining | Very high | |||
Table comment: Population estimate for 2004 is simulated from vital rates measured in 1997. 100% of PVA runs resulted in population decline after 10 years. TEK suggests population is increasing. Both TEK and professionals have suggested immigration from LS. Quotas have decreased in Greenland (2006) and Increased in Nunavut (2005), decrease to start (2010).
Based on the movements of adult females with satellite radio-collars and recaptures of tagged animals, the Baffin Bay (BB) subpopulation of polar bears is bounded by the North Water Polynya to the north, Greenland to the east and Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada to the west (Taylor and Lee 1995, Taylor et al. 2001a). A distinct southern boundary at Cape Dyer, Baffin Island, is evident from the movements of tagged bears (Stirling et al. 1980) and from polar bears monitored by satellite telemetry (Taylor et al. 2001a). A study of microsatellite genetic variation did not reveal any significant differences between polar bears in BB and neighboring Kane Basin, although there was significant genetic variation between polar bears in BB and those in Davis Strait (Paetkau et al. 1999). An initial subpopulation estimate of 300 – 600 bears was based on mark-recapture data collected in spring (1984 – 1989) in which the capture effort was restricted to shore-fast ice and the floe edge off northeast Baffin Island. However, work in the early 1990’s showed that an unknown proportion of the subpopulation is typically offshore during the spring and, therefore, unavailable for capture. A second study (1993 – 1997) was carried out during September and October, when all polar bears were ashore in summer retreat areas on Bylot and Baffin islands (Taylor et al. 2005). Taylor et al. (2005) estimated the number of polar bears in BB at 2,074 ± 226 (SE). The current (2004) abundance estimate is less than 1,600 bears based on simulations using vital rates from the capture study (Taylor et al. 2005) and up-to-date pooled Canadian and Greenland harvest records.